Climate crisis likely the cause o devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that kilt mair nor 1,300, first study finds

Climate breakdown likelie weakened the glacier that collapsed, causin catastrophic floods and killin hunners o folk in Nepal and Tibet last month, the first scientific study o the disaster has fun.

Researchers identified unco warm conditions afore the glacier’s collapse, which sent an avalanche o 110m cubic metres o snaw and ice intae the valley belaw. This triggered flash floods on an amaist unprecedented scale, hittin communities doonstream withoot warnin.

Communities in Nepal are payin wi their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions thoosands o miles awa, said Dr Friederike Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London, which cairried oot the study.

When heatin destabilises the roof o the warld, nae amunt o local adaptation can fully shield vulnerable folk doonstream frae this scale o destruction. Withoot mair rapid action tae transition tae zero fossil fuel emissions we will inevitably see mair disasters o this scale occurrin in the years tae come.

Mair nor 1,300 folk war kilt and mair nor 5,000 remain missin efter a massive section o overhangin glacier and rock measurin roughly 200,000 square metres fell frae Langtang Lirung mountain on 26 August.

It drapped aboot 1,400 metres, slammin intae the valley flair wi sic intensity that it registered as an earthquake, liquidisin ice and sparkin a freezin flood that careened doonriver at speeds exceedin 110 mph.

The devastatin flood o watter, ice, rock and sediment sweept awa families, hames, settlements, roads, briggs and ither infrastructure, leavin survivors stranded and cut aff.

Rock avalanches o this size are rare, wi annual frequency estimates o approximately ane event this size every 1,000 tae 10,000 years, the study said. This event shaws that limits tae adaptation are already bein reached.

The research was unlike previous studies by Otto and her team at World Weather Attribution (WWA) – a collaborative project between Imperial and ither climate specialists warldwide – in that the role o climate breakdown cudna be ascribed tae ane particular weather event.

Instead, the researchers fun the disaster was the result o a compound crisis, wi a nummer o factors made waur by decades o atmospheric heatin as a result o greenhouse gas pollution.

Dr Ben Clarke, wha researches extreme weather and climate change at Imperial, said the fingerprints o climate change war clear in the lang-term changes that happened roond the glacier afore its catastrophic collapse.

Amang the study’s key findinrs war: the region whaur the collapse happened has seen aboot 2C o heatin since pre-industrial times, and aboot 1.5C o heatin in July and August specifically; July and August 2026 war the warmest on record locally, reachin 5C abuin the 30-year average in the days afore the collapse; the freezin threshold in the Himalayas has risen by aboot 100 metres per decade since the 1980s, wi heicher and langer thaw temperatures weakenin mountain slopes shaped by permafrost; the heatin temperature had already driven substantial glacier recession, removin stabilisin ice frae roond the site whaur the collapse occurred and contributin meltwatter; and a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 further contributed tae slope failure, tho its specific contribution tae the disaster in August cudna be confirmed.

Otto, Clarke and the WWA team said their study didna directly ascribe climate breakdown as the fundamental cause o the catastrophe. Instead, it was best understood as a destabilisin factor on the existin geology.

Clarke said: We fun that climate change is transformin the heich mountain environment, influencin mony o the possible drivers o this collapse.

Nepal has filed a formal request wi the UN loss and damage fund for financial support tae address the destruction caused by the flood, a process that requires pruif o a link tae the climate crisis. The country’s foreign minister, Shisir Khanal, has also demanded that tap permittin nations sic as China and India wake up and accept shared responsibility for the disaster.

Madhab Uprety, senior technical advisor for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, which is part o WWA, said only aggressive cuts tae global emissions cud begin tae address the losses and damages faced by vulnerable frontline communities.

He added: In addition tae the human tragedy on an unimaginable scale, the cost o recovery for this disaster is substantial. For a nation that’s done virtually naethin tae contribute tae this problem, it underlines the need tae find fairness in helpin climate vulnerable nations cope wi the problems they have nae unleashed.