‘Forcin a reckonin’: Hoo Asia is preparin for a ‘supersized’ El Niño

Asian govrenments are ruggin up preparations for the maist severe El Niño weather event on record, wi hunners o millions o fowk girdin theirsels for multiple crises at aince as extreme heat, heavy rain an fuid shortages hit the region.

Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific – an developin alangside the human-driven climate crisis – El Niño is virtually guaranteed tae grow tae a verra strang intensity towards the end o this year an intae 2027.

The World Fuid Programme has warned that aboot 50 million fowk will likely be pushit intae acute hunger due tae the exceptionally intense weather system, while UN secretary-general António Guterres said this month that El Niño was bein supersized afore oor een.

Here are the steps kintras in Asia are takin tae prepare for El Niño:

In Hong Kong, authorities hae already been forced tae revise workplace policies, efter the ceety experienced its hottest day on record on 9 August. During times o extreme heat, companies are expeckit tae reschedule wark, provide cuilin equipment an rest breaks for their employees.

Employers in the international financial hub cud even face prosecution if they fail tae provide staff wi support at times o swelterin heat.

In mainland China a 100-day campaign has been launched tae prepare for extreme weather an help safeguard harvests against the opposin extremes o drouth an intense rainfall.

Beijing has plans tae upgrade early warnin monitorin systems, an in July, it launched a national plan encouragin ceeties tae draw up climate risk maps tae help identify areas maist vulnerable tae floodin an severe heat.

Taiwan, meanwhile, is treatin the predictit extreme weather as an emergency situation, an preparin usin methods similar tae whit it wad dae tae train for a terrorist attack or earthquake. In early September, the island kintra held a mass exercise simulatin three consecutive days o temperatures abuin 40C. Hunners o fowk took pairt in the field exercises, which simulated pouer an watter disruption, rail problems, air conditioner failure an mass heatstroke.

The govrenment has also been testin its Cool Map online platform, which helps tae direct vulnerable fowk tae air-conditioned an cuil spaces.

El Niño is already wreakin havoc across sooth Asia; in pairts o India there has been a shortfall o monsoon rainfall o amaist 50% in September, wi knock-on effects on key crops such as rice, pulses, cotton an maize. Concerns are mountin that there cud be a diminished harvest in the comin months, likely drivin up fuid prices – already cripplin for puir an lawer middle-class families.

The Indian govrenment has taken a hyper-vigilant approach tae establish whit the agriculture minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, described as a protective shield for farmers.

In mair than 350 vulnerable districts authorities are boostin watter conservation infrastructure an watter harvestin, an are encouragin farmers tae plant law-watter, short-duration crops – such as pulses an millets.

But the maist intense impact o El Niño in the area is in Sri Lanka, where the absence o rainfall an heich temperatures hae become sae severe that the kintra is experiencin its warst drouth in a decade. Mair than 160,000 fowk are noo facin a drinkin watter shortage as several key reservoirs run dry.

Offeecials hae been forced tae close the tourist areas o the Yala national park, hame tae leopards, elephants, crocodiles an spottit deer, an hae been bringin in tankers o watter tae fill the ponds tae mak sure the animals dae no dee. In Mullaithivu lagoon, in the north-east o Sri Lanka, thoosands o fish were foond deid due tae the lack o fresh watter.

The kintra’s disaster management centre is preparin for a situation in which freshwatter supplies cud vanish. If watter sources dry up, there will be nae alternative means o obtainin watter, an offeecial said. Colombo wad then be forced tae process saut watter frae the sea, althouch relyin on the kintra’s ane desalination plant is no considered warkable.

In sooth-east Asia, El Niño is compoondit by a series o ongoin crises. The Iran war has already disrupted global energy an supply chains an inflated fertiliser costs, disproportionately hittin the region. At the same time, severe haze frae seasonal fires across Malaysia an Indonesia has chokit ceeties an is damagin plants an trees.

During the 2023–2024 El Niño, sooth-east Asian govrenments successfully cuishoned agricultural impacts by adjustin plantin calendars an managin watter, but thae strategies will be insufficient tae deal wi the scale o the crisis, experts warn. Regional rice yields are already projectit tae faa by 8 tae 10%.

We canna juist assume that this El Niño is gaun tae be the same as the last because there are sae mony challenges that hae been stackin on tap o ilk ither, says Elyssa Kaur Ludher, a climate an fuid security expert based in Singapore.

The Philippines, Malaysia an Indonesia are particularly vulnerable tae fuid price changes, says Kaur Ludher, a visitin fellow wi the Climate Change for Southeast Asia Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

In Singapore, maist o oor income is no spent on fuid. It’s unner 10%. But for Indonesians, it can be up tae 50% or even mair as a proportion o income spent on fuid. Sae ony price rise affects them disproportionately.

Wi the potential for price rises tae leave fowk desperate an angry, Kaur Ludher has argued for fuid security tae be reframed as a national security issue. In Indonesia an the Philippines in particular, she said, social stability depends a lot on fuid prices. Rice is a lifeline tae this region, she says.

Tae prepare, sooth-east Asian govrenments an farmer cooperatives are promotin regenerative agriculture an shiftin toward biofertilisers.

We hae come tae a stage where climate change is puttin sae muckle pressure on us – on oor existin, already crumblin or structurally unsound, systems, say Kaur Ludher. Nature will force us tae hae a reckonin.

Sooth Korea saw the driest July on record in the kintra’s sooth-east. Weeks later came a freak reversal, as a weakenin storm system draggit in a deluge that dumpit some o the heaviest rainfall ever recordit at a Korean weather station. The heat was sae intense that farmers described spoilt potatoes as bein boiled in the grund.

The kintra’s weather agency has overhauled its heatwave alert system for the first time in 18 years, addin a tap tier that triggers offeecial guidance tae stap non-emergency ootdoor wark ance feels-like temperatures hit 38C. Nationwide, phones hae buzzit for weeks wi govrenment alerts urgin fowk tae stay indoors during the hottest hoors.

Offeecials are watchin oot for a rough autumn, wi seas aroond the Korean peninsula remainin unusually warm for the season an forecasters expectin the north-wast Pacific tae produce far mair pouerfu storms than usual this year, since a strengthenin El Niño is weakenin the heich pressure that has sae far kept them away.

Japan is also girdin for the arrival o sae-cawed super-typhoons, which experts attribute tae a combination o El Niño an human-induced global heatin.

El Niño was aince associated wi slichtly cuiler summers in Japan. But risin sea surface temperatures mean it is haein the opposite effect, blanketin mony pairts o the kintra in record-breakin heat an humidity in 2023-4, the last time the weather pattern materialised.

Japan recordit its first offeecial cruelly hot day – or kokushobi – in July, juist efter the start o the current El Niño event. The Japanese term, introducit in April tae underscore the threat tae health posit by risin temperatures, refers tae days when the mercury exceeds 40C.

Noo, as the summer heat dissipates, the kintra is girdin for the arrival o potentially destructive typhoons.

The public is encouraged tae tak measures tae protect theirsels an their hames, such as heedin offeecial evacuation warnins an stockin up on fuid an watter. Fowk livin in apartments are urgit tae secure or bring inside flooer pots an furniture – onything that cud become a dangerous flyin object during a storm.

This month the infrastructure ministry said it had identified several heich-risk unnerpasses on national hie-ways that wad be closed preemptively during heavy rain. Unnerpasses – which allow cars tae travel beneath ither roads or railway lines – became a focus o concern last month efter twa trappit motorists drooned during record-breakin rain in Chiba prefecture, east o Tokyo.