Pact wi Saudi Arabie threitens tae draw Pakistan intae Middle East conflict

As he stood in Riyadh last September, the warld luikit like a vera different place for Pakistan’s maist pouerful man, Gen Asim Munir.

The kintra’s airmy chief wis there tae witness the signin o a historic defence pact wi Saudi Arabie, the whilk he had personally orchestratit wi the croun prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

Tae Munir, it appeart tae be a highly strategic win: Riyadh wad provide cash-strappit Pakistan wi billions o dollars o life-savin investments and loans. In exchynge, Pakistan agreet tae train up the Saudi military, and Pakistan’s airmed forces wad defend Saudi Arabie in the unlikly event o an attack on its territory.

Analysts say it wis clear that Pakistan presumit US-Iran relations wad sune get back on track and the risk o a conflict sweepin acroass the Middle East and the Gulf wis law.

But a vera different scenario sune unfauldit. By Februar, the Middle East wis on fire efter the US and Israel began bombin Iran – and Iran began firin missiles at the Gulf states, includin Saudi Arabie, in retaliation.

It did nae tak lang for the war tae reinflame Saudi’s conflict wi the Houthis, the Iran-backit rebel group based in Yemen, and for their fragile truce tae collapse. Earlier this month the Houthis made unprecidentit territorial gains in Yemen and hit Saudi territory wi strikes and drones. Saudi Arabie has respondit by poundin Yemen wi airstrikes. Some believe a return tae full-scale war is on the horizon.

The presser is noo mountin on Pakistan, and particularly Munir. In August, the defence pact wi Saudi Arabie was extendit tae include Turkey and renamit the Mecca joint defence agreement. The kintras agreet that an airmed attack on ony ane o them wad be treatit as an attack on all three.

Ayesha Siddiqa, a defence analyst and senior fallow at King’s College London, said: “I dinna think Asim Munir properly calculatit the threits the region was facin – and that Pakistan micht need tae put its troops on the line quite sae sune.”

Saudi Arabie has tens o billions o dollars in feichter jets and war machinery, but it does nae hae ony warfare experience tae fecht the Houthis, wha hae pruivit tae be teuch, resilient feichters. Pakistan’s forces, traint tae deal wi the constant menace o India, wad be highly valuable on the frontline.

Analysts say that if Saudi Arabie decidit tae activate the Mecca pact tae fecht the Houthis, Pakistan wad hae nae choice but tae send in its troops, includin thoosands wha are already deployit in Saudi Arabie for trainin. As weel as bein a defence pairtner, Pakistan is almost totally economically and geopolitically dependent on Saudi Arabie, the whilk has recently gien the kintra a lifesavin $8bn (£6bn) in funds and investments.

Last week, Pakistani govrenment ministers and senior military figures gae increasingly bullish statements, confirmin their “unconditional” commitment tae the pact and sayin Islamabad wad gae tae “ony extent” tae defend Saudi Arabie.

But privately, officials in Pakistan are deeply worried aboot bein draggit intae the never-endin war unfauldin acroass the Middle East. The kintra is already economically cripplit, in a de facto war wi the Taliban in Afghanistan, and facin an uncontrollable surge in militancy in its mairch auries.

Tae mony, an activation o the Mecca pact wad be perceivit as Islamabad takin a clear stance against Iran. Afore the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Pakistan had guid relations wi its neighbour – ties that Munir utilisit tae bring Tehran tae the negotiatin table in his attempt tae secure a lastin ceasefire. But as the war has draggit on, Pakistan has become increasingly infuriatit wi Iran, while Tehran has little trust left in Islamabad.

As Siddiqa emphatisit, Pakistan joinin the fecht against the Houthis “wad come wi major repercussions”. Efter Iran, Pakistan is hame tae the second-lairgest population o Shia Muslims, wha wad probably rise up in protest against ony involvement in strikes on the Houthis.

Iran also maintains guid relations wi the Taliban in Afghanistan, posin the risk o further provokin ane o Pakistan’s biggest security threits and drivin militancy and security problems alang the Afghanistan-Pakistan mairch tae even deadlier levels.

It also risks inflammin the situation in Balochistan, Pakistan’s unstable mairch region wi Iran, the whilk is hame tae a lang-runnin and uncontrollable insurgency.

Raja Nasir Abbas, the opposition leader in Pakistan’s senate, said that only the vera few at the tap o Pakistan’s military even kent whit conditions and agreements had been made in the Mecca pact. Wi the military as Pakistan’s de facto rulers, the decision tae join was nae even put afore parliament.

“It will be a disaster for the kintra if Pakistan jumps intae war,” said Abbas. “We are already facin twa lethal insurgencies; our economy is in a shambles and inflation has rockit. If we tak Saudi Arabie’s side in this conflict, the kintra will face chaos, instability and religious division.”

Sae far, nae ane has been able tae pinpoint whit the “red line” wad be that wad force the pact tae be activatit. Analysts said Pakistan appeart tae be bankin on Riyadh’s reluctance tae enter intae open warfare wi Iran by escalatin its fecht wi the Houthis. Turkey has also made it clear it does nae want tae enter the fray.

“Pakistan will dae its best nae tae get involvit in ony incursion on Yemeni soil,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, the director o the Islamabad-based Pak Institute for Peace Studies.

Speakin privately, ane senior official said he did nae think the Saudi croun prince “wants tae activate the pact noo”.

“If the kinrick plans tae send its grund forces, Pakistan wad support that,” he said. “But I dinna think Saudi Arabie wad start a full-fledgit war against the Houthis withoot American approval and Trump has snubbit them. Richt noo, the US does nae want tae open up anither front; they prefer talkin tae Houthis.”

He addit: “Ye canna predict the future though.”